Growth Rate Calculation and Population Projections for Dearborn County for 10 Years

Growth Rate Calculation and Population Projection

Researched by Planning office staff and provided to Master Plan Advisory Board
All core data from Census 2000-2006 Tables and studies

Some of these tables cannot be reproduced on the blog- that data is being summarized.

Table 1 showed the county population increase from 2000 through 2006 going from 46,352 to 49,663
The net change was 2,775
There was a TOTAL population increase of 3,311 with 3,651 births, 2,157 deaths leading to a natural increase (births minus deaths) of 1,494.
There was in migration of 1,817.
The average annual growth rate was calculated as 1.15

Using this number: Table 2 took population projections from 2007 through 2017 as being 49,663 in the beginning of 2007 and ending with 55,679 in 2017 for a total new population of 6,016 people.


To determine the effects of population on housing and land consumption- 4 more tables were presented:


Table A showed projected new housing units needed for the 6,016 people at 2,220 homes using the average household size of 2.71 people calculated in 2000.

Table B showed residential construction trends in number of new homes in 10 year increments:
Pre 1940- 3,272
1940-1959- 2,995
1960-1969- 1,413
1970-1979- 3,040
1980-1989- 2,567
1990-2000- 4,585 (This was 90-94-1,922 and 95-00 – 2,663)


Table C Showed how much Land would be consumed at different densities from 2007 through 2017 It was also broken down by native population and in-migration:
High Density at 1.25 acres would use 300.3acres for natives and 365.7 acres for migration =666 acres
Mid density at 1 acre would use 1,001.1 acres for natives and 1,340.9 acres for migration=2,442acres
Mid density at 3 acres would use 3,153.2 acres for natives and 3,839.9 acres for migration=6,993acres
Low density at 5 acres would use 5,205.2 acres for natives and 6,338.8 acres for migration=11,544 acres


Table D showed Miscellaneous County Population Land Data:

Projected Population Increase from 2007-2017 = 3,002 natural increase and 3,654 in-migration
Average County household size in 2000 = 2.71 people
Density- (Persons per square mile) = 151.2
Farmland in 2002= 74,042 acres
County land Area = 305 square miles
Median Home value= $120,600
Ownership Rate = 78.6%